As if to Prove it cannot be Trusted, Iran Tests a Ballistic Missile

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By Christopher W. Holton

Iran tested its Emad ballistic missile this weekend in direct violation of UN resolutions prohibiting such activity.

If America had sane, competent leadership, this would immediately kill the horrible Iran nuclear deal, but because we have Barack Obama and John Kerry in charge, Iran’s latest violation of international law will go ignored as usual and America will rush headlong into the worst, most dangerous agreement in our nation’s history.

NOTE: Contrary to what the Reuters article linked below says, the Emad is NOT a precision guided weapon. It is a ballistic missile that the Iranians are attempting to make more accurate.

The Emad is an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) with a range of just over 1500 miles. It has a payload of just under 4,000 pounds. It has nuclear warhead potential, as well as MIRV (multiple warhead) potential, in addition to being a primary testbed for improving the accuracy of Iran’s ballistic missiles.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/11/us-iran-military-missiles-idUSKCN0S505L20151011

 

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History Repeats Itself

 

The Fathers of the North Korean Atomic Bomb

The Fathers of the North Korean Atomic Bomb

 

The Fathers of the Iranian Atomic Bomb

The Fathers of the Iranian Atomic Bomb

Peace in our Time: The April Fool’s Accord–John Kerry’s “Finest Hour”?

kerry-chamberlain

It only seems so appropriate. John Kerry’s Iran nuclear negotiations have been extended to April Fool’s Day.

This latest in a series of extensions came after the Iranians once again played Kerry like a Stradivarius by hardening their position and threatening to deny Barack Obama and John Kerry their “Peace in Our Time” photo op.

So after years of one-sided “negotiations,” the crack Obama-Kerry negotiation braintrust grants yet another extension to the world’s foremost state sponsor of Jihadist terrorism over its already designated illegal nuclear program. (That point is important, namely that Iran is enriching uranium in violation of international law and is out of compliance with international nuclear protocols.)

Cartoonist Gary Varvel: John Kerry as Neville Chamberlain

This latest development shows what a dangerous clown show these negotiations are. Time is on the Iranians’ side. They have been playing this game at the negotiating table for years now. Even the French recognize this.

Obama eased sanctions on Iran and what have we received in return? Not a damn thing.

Obama and Kerry seem desperate to talk for the sake of holding talks, as if that accomplishes something. It only accomplishes something for the Iranians. They have benefited materially from these talks.

neville-obama

There is an old saying that goes something like this: “If they’re talking to you, they aren’t shooting at you.”

That saying isn’t true at all of course.

Just as the Japanese used talks as cover for their planned sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, the Iranians are using talks as cover for building The Bomb.

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Allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons by any means is a catastrophe. In fact, it’s the biggest national security catastrophe of the post-Cold War world.

Future generations will ask, “How did they ever let it happen?”

The answer will come in the form of two historical villains:

Barack Obama and John Kerry.

The Obama Perpetrated Iran Disaster Emerges

Well, the deed is all but done. The Obamanistas have gotten what they wanted all along: a false detente with the Ayatollahs.

John Kerry would have us believe that the Iranian nuclear program has been frozen by the “agreement” he “hammered” out with Iranian negotiators, but the subsequent remarks from Iranian leaders are very telling; they don’t appear to believe that they agreed to anything that truly curtails their nuclear ambitions.

Kerry is lying.

At BEST, this agreement seems to have set back the Iranian nuclear program all of 6 weeks. It is now inevitable that one day we will wake up and turn on the cable news shows and be treated to the news that Iran has nuclear weapons.

Make no mistake, Obama was NEVER committed to preventing the Iranians from becoming armed with nuclear weapons. To Obama’s world view, this is simply a balancing of world power. We have more nukes than anyone, so, what difference does it make that Iran has nukes? (Incidentally, this is essentially the same position that some Republicans, notably Rand Paul, have taken.)

Obama also has an underlying animosity toward Israel and no doubt sees Iran as a nuclear power in much the same light as Israel as a nuclear power.

Probably the most disappointing to liberals in the US who purported to support Israel, Hillary Clinton has gone along with the charade. To Hillary Clinton, everything is about political expedience and she sees it in her best political interests not to disagree with Obama on Iran.

In other words, there is no one in power in Washington who is truly concerned about Iran having the atomic bomb.

Leon Panetta may actually have believed it a few years ago when he said that the US would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, but he was being lied to by his colleagues in the Obama administration who claimed to hold that view. No one in the Obama administration is talking like that now.

John Kerry would have us believe that we can just turn sanctions back on like a light switch if the Iranians don’t hold up their end of the faux bargain. This is perhaps the biggest lie.

Maybe the US can turn on sanctions again, but such unilateral sanctions will have little effect because the Chinese and the Russians are running full-speed into expanding their operations in the Iranian market now and our allies in Europe, Japan and South Korea are headed back in too. None of those countries, all of whom have closer economic ties to Iran than the US, is likely to turn sanctions back on any time soon. Nope, the genie is out of the bottle.

Meanwhile, the Iranians are up to their usual nefarious activities. They are playing chess and we still think the game is checkers.

A high ranking member of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently stated that Iran has IRGC and Hezbollah sleeper cells inside of America ready to strike targets:

http://dailycaller.com/2014/02/01/iranian-commander-we-have-targets-within-america/

I absolutely believe his claim to be true. There is no reason to doubt it.

President Rouhani took office last year amid wide speculation that he would finally be the long-lost “moderate” who would reach out lovingly to the West. This broken record is really getting tiresome. As if to ensure that the myth is once again disposed of properly, the Iranians have ramped up executions on his watch:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/3/iranian-executions-spiking-despite-thaw-with-west-/

Meanwhile, Iran is using its oil wealth to exert its influence in America’s backyard. Through Hezbollah and activities emanating from Iran’s diplomatic facilities in the region, the Iranians are becoming involved in terrorism and criminal enterprises…

http://freebeacon.com/experts-iran-exerting-troubling-influence-in-latin-america/

And as we have pointed out previously, the nuclear agreement with Iran doesn’t even mention the Iranians’ ballistic missile program:

http://freebeacon.com/iranian-ballistic-missile-program-can-continue-under-deal/

Finally, amid all their nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile testing and sponsorship of terror, the US, thanks to the Obamanistas, is facilitating the Iranians’ access to long frozen financial resources. Money is the most fungible of all commodities. The Iranians might actually tell John Kerry and Barack Obama that this money won’t be spent on things like uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles and Hezbollah, but it makes no difference because it would definitely free up Iranian money elsewhere for such activity. We’ve known for decades that this is what the Ayatollahs do. That’s why this deal that John Kerry has perpetrated upon all of Western Civilization is criminal in its effect…

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/joseph-klein/pay-day-for-the-mullahs/

 

 

 

 

The Other Threat Obama and Kerry Ignored: Ballistic Missiles

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For over a decade, Iran has had a robust, active ballistic missile development program. There are new developments on this front that are being covered ably by the crew over at the Free Beacon. Before we link those, here are the basics of the Iranian ballistic missile program…

Iran has several types of ballistic missiles, ranging from Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) to Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM). Some are imported systems, some are domestic copies of foreign systems and some are indigenous systems. Iran is also known to be working on ICBMs–Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles.

According to the Obama Defense Department’s “Annual Report on the Military Power of Iran,” published in April of 2012, US intelligence estimates indicate that Iran will be capable of testing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in 2015.  A May 2009 joint US-Russian assessment published by the East-West Institute estimated that Iran was 6-8 years away from fielding an ICBM. The United States Institute of Peace estimates that Iran will have an ICBM capable of striking the US by 2020.

Iranian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

Fateh-110

This solid-fueled, mobile missile system was developed jointly with Red China, North Korea and Syria as a replacement for SCUD missiles. It entered production in 2002 and has a range of 185 miles. This is far enough to hit targets into US installations in Afghanistan, Kuwait and Qatar.

Shehab-1

Developed from the Soviet-era SCUD-B, this mobile, liquid-fueled rocket has a range of 185 miles. This is far enough to target US bases in Afghanistan, Kuwait and Qatar.

Shehab-2

Developed as an improvement from imported North Korean SCUD-C ballistic missiles, this liquid-fueled, mobile missile system has a range of 435 miles. This is sufficient range to reach US bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.

Tondar-69

This is the name given by Iran to its CSS-8 rockets acquired from Red China. This solid-fueled, mobile missile has a range of 90 miles and is more of a battlefield rocket, though it could reach targets outside Iran if fired near Iran’s coast or borders.

Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM)

Shehab-3

This mobile, liquid-fueled missile was developed from North Korea’s NoDong 1 missile. Estimate’s of the Shehab-3’s range capabilities vary; some estimates place it in the IRBM category, rather than the MRBM category. The range estimates vary between 550 and 1500 miles. The upper end of this range would include all of Israel, as well as the eastern Mediterranean, all of Turkey, parts of Greece and all of Saudi Arabia. The lower end of the spectrum would place much of Saudi Arabia within range. There are several variants of the Shehab-3 with different names.

Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM)

Sajjil

There are at least three generations of this ballistic missile. It is a solid-fueled, mobile rocket and represents a significant advancement in Iranian capability because it is two-staged and thus lays the foundation for intercontinental flight. Also, because it is solid-fueled, it can be launched relatively quickly with little preparation. Range estimates vary from 1200 to 1800 miles, potentially putting targets as far as parts of Poland and parts of Italy within range.

Iranian Space Rocketry

Of particular significance and concern are Iranian efforts at space rocketry, through which it is in the process of mastering the multi-stage rocketry that is required for long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles capable of hitting the US from Iran. Readers may recall that North Korea has also used the cover of a space program to develop ballistic missile technology.

Iran’s Safir rocket was used to place a satellite in orbit in 2009. That launch displayed a new level of capability in propulsion and multi-stage rocketry that the Iranians had previously not demonstrated. The rocket appears to be a development of the Sajjil with greater length but a similar diameter.

Iran has unveiled a prototype of a larger, more capable multi-stage rocket known as the Simorgh, designed to achieve higher orbits with heavier payloads than the Safir. Thus far, the Simorgh has not flown.

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We provide this background because of announced developments by Iran’s ballistic missile program that have coincided with the Obama-Kerry-Ayatollah Agreement.

This morning, Bill Gertz of the Free Beacon detailed the latest on Iranian-North Korean cooperation on ballistic missiles. House Republicans revealed that US intelligence is warning them that Iran and North Korea are developing new engines for ballistic missiles at the same time that Obama and Kerry are asking Americans to back an agreement on nuclear technology with the Ayatollahs:

Iranian collaboration with North Korea on a new rocket booster for long-range missiles undermines the deal with Tehran on its nuclear program, key Senate and House Republicans said on Tuesday.

“While the president was undertaking his secret negotiations—which Congress wasn’t informed of—he had to know Iran and North Korea were testing new engines for ballistic missiles to target the United States,” said Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Ala.) chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on strategic forces.

The chairman, whose subcommittee is in charge of overseeing U.S. strategic weapons, ballistic missile defenses, and space programs, made the comments in response to a report Tuesday revealing that Iran is covertly working with North Korea on a new 80-ton rocket booster that can be used in both nations’ long-range missile programs.

In the Senate, Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) also criticized the Iran nuclear deal for not addressing the threat of Iran’s ICBM program.

Reports of Iran-North Korea ICBM collaboration follow new anti-America and anti-Israel outbursts from the Islamist regime in Tehran, Cruz said.

http://freebeacon.com/iran-north-korea-missile-cooperation-undermines-recent-geneva-nuclear-deal/

On the heels of Gertz’s article, Adam Kredo posted an article about a report directly from Iranian state-run media quoting an announcement on ballistic missile technology from a leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC):

A top Iranian military leader announced late Tuesday that Iran has developed “indigenous” ballistic missile technology, which could eventually allow it to fire a nuclear payload over great distances.

Brigadier General Hossein Salami, the lieutenant commander of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), made the critical weapons announcement just days after Iran and the West signed a deal aimed at curbing the country’s nuclear activities.

Salami claimed that “Iran is among the only three world countries enjoying an indigenous ballistic missile technology,” according to the state-run Fars News Agency. [Editor’s note: this claim would no doubt come as a surprise to Great Britain, France, Red China, India, and Israel.]

Of particular interest and significance from Kredo’s article are these passages from Michael Rubin:

Former Pentagon adviser Michael Rubin said that the United States is not paying great enough attention to Tehran’s military advancements.

“Perhaps, [Secretary of State] John Kerry believes that Iran only wants ballistic missiles for peaceful purposes,” said Rubin, author of Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes.

“The fact of the matter is that Kerry and crew left both ballistic missiles and the nuclear warhead trigger experimentation at Parchin [military site] off-the-table” during talks in Geneva, Rubin said. “It’s the diplomatic equivalent of installing a burglar alarm system in your house but leaving the keys in the door.”

http://freebeacon.com/iran-announces-development-of-ballistic-missile-technology/

 

 

 

Report: Iran accuses White House of lying on nuke agreement

Given Obama’s track record, it’s tough to know where the truth lies here. But either way, the news is bad.

Either Obama lied and made an even worse deal with the Ayatollahs than he is telling us, or he is telling the truth and the Ayatollahs have already decided to re-interpret the agreement in such a way as to allow maximum overdrive in their continued quest for nuclear weapons.

It doesn’t really matter which at this point because Obama already opened Pandora’s Box with this terrible agreement. The Ayatollahs have broken down decades of work by Republicans and Democrats alike in America to do our best to isolate Iran economically through sanctions. Perhaps even more than Obamacare, that will be Obama’s legacy: Atomic Ayatollahs–the world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism armed with nuclear weaponry.

Thanks to Obama and his disgraced Secretary of State John Kerry, the Iranians will very soon have billions of additional dollars with which to develop nuclear technology, build ballistic missiles and sponsor Jihadist terrorism around the globe.

From the Free Beacon article:

Iranian officials say that the White House is misleading the public about the details of an interim nuclear agreement reached over the weekend in Geneva.

The White House released a multi-page fact sheet containing details of the draft agreement shortly after the deal was announced.

However, [an] Iranian foreign ministry official on Tuesday rejected the White House’s version of the deal as “invalid” and accused Washington of releasing a factually inaccurate primer that misleads the American public.

Afkham and officials said that the White House has “modified” key details of the deal and released their own version of the agreement in the fact sheet.

Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the key component in a nuclear weapon, is fully recognized under the draft released by Tehran.

http://freebeacon.com/iran-white-house-lying-about-details-of-nuke-deal/

It is clear that Iran knows that uranium enrichment is key to its quest for nuclear weapons and they have every intention of continuing that activity. What is not being discussed in the so-called “mainstream” media in the US is the fact that Iran’s uranium enrichment operations are already in violation of UN Security Council Resolutions and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a party.

Why does anyone think that the Ayatollahs would suddenly begin playing by the rules now?

It is once again worth noting that we have seen this scenario before. Way back in 1994, in a deal referred to as the “Agreed Framework,” Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter combined to forge a deal with North Korea that was supposed to prevent that country from building nuclear weapons. It failed. In fact, Jimmy Carter can rightly be referred to as the Father of the North Korean Atomic Bomb. North Korea took the largesse that that deal provided and kept up its work on building bombs. Clinton and Carter to this day continue to lie about what the Agreed Framework accomplished. What it actually accomplished was to provide the cover necessary for a rogue nation to become a nuclear power. It is significant that the Agreed Framework was fashioned in such a way as to avoid the necessity for Senate ratification.

Today, the Obama-Kerry-Ayatollah agreement does the exact same thing. It bypasses the Senate’s constitutional authority and responsibility to ratify foreign treaties. And the inevitable result will be Iran as a nuclear power. This will be a gargantuan problem that successive presidents will have to deal with long after Obama steals away in the dark of night from his work at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The Coming Bonanza for Jihad from the Obama/Kerry-Ayatollah Nuclear Bargain

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Lost in the discussion about the disastrous P5+1 agreement on nuclear technology forced on the world by Barack Obama, John Kerry and the Ayatollahs in Tehran are the profound implications for Jihadist terrorism.

No where in the agreement is the issue of Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism even addressed. For all we know, John Kerry didn’t even raise it as an issue in his talks with the Iranians.

It’s not like the Obama administration can deny Iran’s role in the sponsorship of terrorism. The State Department has for years called Iran the world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism. We have chronicled that in the past:

https://iranbulletin.me/2010/08/06/irans-sponsorship-of-terror-detailed-in-new-state-department-report/

Note that in the State Department report we cited in our 2010 post on Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism, the Obama State Department acknowledged not only Iran’s sponsorship of Shia Hezbollah, but also Sunni terrorist organizations, such as HAMAS and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In addition, Iran was cited for providing safe haven for Al Qaeda and for providing arms and training to the Taliban, who were fighting US forces in Afghanistan.

Iran’s complicated, on-again, off-again relationship with Al Qaeda was the subject of an article I wrote for National Review way back in 2008 as well:

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/223992/iranian-entanglements/christopher-w-holton

Meanwhile, TerrorTrendsBulletin detailed Iran’s ongoing support for the Taliban as long ago as 2009:

http://terrortrendsbulletin.com/2009/06/08/taliban-continue-to-get-heavy-weapons-from-iran/

How does all this fit in with the nuclear agreement?

The point is, it takes money to arm, train, supply and provide safe haven for Hezbollah, HAMAS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Money is the lifeblood of Jihad and no one supports Jihad more than Iran does. That money has to come from somewhere. For the most part Iran gets money from oil and natural gas. Divestment and sanctions policies in the US and the West over the past 8-10 years have been geared toward reducing Iran’s oil revenue.

Now, with the stroke of a pen, Obama and Kerry have provided a renewed stream of revenue to the Ayatollahs by easing sanctions that were designed to pressure the Iranians into changing their behavior. This was done with the hope that the Iranians would not build nuclear weapons, a fool’s errand most likely. But even so, the deal was done in a vacuum of consideration for Iran’s sponsorship of Jihadist terrorism. So, whether the Iranians build an atomic bomb next week, next month or next year, Obama and Kerry obviously don’t care that Iran is the world’s foremost sponsor of Jihadist terrorism.

How much of a financial bonanza will the Iranians enjoy as a result of Obama and Kerry’s handiwork?

Well, one estimate forecasts that the Iranians will see an increase in their oil exports of as much as 50%. Given that Iran exports 1 million barrels of oil per day, that figure could rise to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. Assuming a price of oil of $100 per barrel, that comes to an increase of $50 million each and every day over and above what the Iranians bring in now. Multiply that times 365 days per year and you get a figure of $18,250,000,000.

http://freebeacon.com/analysts-iran-oil-experts-could-increase-50-percent/

In other words, over the next year, the Iranians will earn an extra $18 billion thanks to Barack Obama and John Kerry.

How much of that ends up in the form of weaponry and training for Hezbollah, HAMAS, Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda and the Taliban is anyone’s guess. Surely a portion of it will also go to Iran’s ballistic missile development program as well…which is yet another nefarious Iranian activity that Obama and Kerry actively ignored in putting together this unprecedentedly horrible deal.