Iran and Hezbollah: An Analysis of the Threat by Clare Lopez

Retired CIA officer Clare Lopez has published an excellent, detailed analysis of the threat from Hezbollah as an arm of Iran’s arsenal.

Here is a brief excerpt and link to her report, entitled Hizballah: Iran’s Other Looming Threat to the West

The single most important fact to understand about Hizballah is that its chain of command goes directly to the Iranian Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by way of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Qods Force. That Iranian connection, as well as Hizballah’s close and long-standing relationship with al-Qa’eda, the global reach of this Shi’ite jihadist group, and above all, its extensive presence and criminal activities in the Western Hemisphere, including inside the United States, all merit a closer look. With U.S. national security directly in Hizballah’s cross-hairs, it’s more important than ever to understand what this group is, who leads it, what has motivated them along a bloody 30-year trail of terrorism, and what damage this group is capable of inflicting on American interests.

For even as Hizballah is an Islamic terror organization, an Iranian proxy for power projection, a Transnational Criminal Organization, and a Lebanese military, political, and social domestic entity, it is above all a direct threat to U.S. national security. After all, and despite a complete media blackout on the topic that prevails to this day, on Iranian orders and working together with al-Qa’eda, Hizballah participated in the worst strike ever against the American homeland: the attacks of 9/11. There is no threshold, ideological or otherwise, that Hizballah has not already crossed or would not cross again, given a direct order from Tehran. 

Word out of London in late 2013 is that the U.S. is engaged in secret, indirect negotiations with Hizballah, with British diplomats acting as intermediaries. Those talks followed closely on the U.S. capitulation to Iran over its nuclear weapons program during November 2013 discussions in Geneva and reflect a White House policy of seeking to normalize relations with the regime designated by the Department of State as the number one global state sponsor of terror. Hizballah remains a designated terror organization on the Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list. And while the story about the U.S.-Hizballah talks in London made the Israeli and U.K. media, not one major U.S. media outlet thought it significant to report that the U.S. administration is reaching out to mend relations with what many describe as the most dangerous Islamic terror organization in the world.

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/hizballah-irans-other-looming-threat-to-the-west?f=must_reads#ixzz2ohv16rm3

 

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The Iranians Walk

The Washington Free Beacon is reporting something that the so-called “mainstream” media has chosen to ignore, namely that the Iranians have pulled out of nuclear talks with the P5+1 nations after the US further tightened sanctions on the Islamic Republic, as had been planned for some time.

It will be interesting to say the least to see if the Obama administration “blinks” in order to get the Iranians back to the negotiating table. Up to this point the Iranians have played the Obama administration like a fiddle in the negotiations. Other nations, most notably Red China and Russia, are already moving to ease sanctions on Iran based on the prior announcement of a deal with the Iranians, in return for which the Ayatollahs essentially gave up nothing of note.

It is also very important to note that the $7 billion figure for sanctions relief being thrown around is just the tip of a politico-economic iceberg. Opening up Iran’s oil and gas exports will produce a bonanza many times that figure for the Ayatollahs. Anyone who says any different is either lying or ignorant.

Iranians Pull Out of Nuke Talks

Iranian negotiators abruptly ended nuclear talks with Western powers in Vienna on Friday just a day after the Obama administration announced tighter sanctions on Tehran.

Iran had threatened that new or tighter sanctions would nullify the recently reached Geneva interim deal, which is not yet in effect.

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However, Carney said that the administration continues to oppose new sanctions.

“Let’s be clear also that we continue to oppose passage of new nuclear-related sanctions,” Carney said.

http://freebeacon.com/iranians-pull-out-of-nuke-talks/

 

Why is Iran Developing ICBMs?

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Why is Iran working on Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles?

There is no possible peaceful purpose for ballistic missiles. Iran may claim that their nuclear program is peaceful, but they cannot possibly make that claim when it comes to ballistic missiles. The only reason to have ballistic missiles is to target enemies with high explosives and WMD.

Iran’s Shehab-3 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles have sufficient range to hit Israel, Saudi Arabia and US bases in Afghanistan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait and Turkey.

Why are the Iranians working with the North Koreans on multi-stage Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)?

Who might the Iranians be targeting with such missiles?

NATO? Probably, but parts of NATO in Europe are already in range of the latest versions of the Shehab-3. Iran is working on missiles with much greater range than that.

Clearly, Iran seeks to target countries much further away.

Certainly, Great Britain and France are possible targets. China and Russia both sell Iran weaponry, so it is unlikely that either would be targeted.

The answer is obvious. Iran wants ICBMs to target the US homeland. And one does not build ICBMs and arm them with conventional warheads. ICBMs are not generally accurate enough to make a high explosive warhead effective. ICBMs are armed with nuclear warheads.

Now, Iran claims it does not want nuclear weapons. But the Ayatollahs have a history of lying, going all the way back to 1978-79 when the Ayatollah Khomeini claimed that he had no interest in governing Iran after the Islamic revolution. He made this statement repeatedly to the international media. He was, of course, lying–just as the Iranians are lying today about their nuclear ambitions. Khomeini ruled Iran as a totalitarian dictator for an entire decade until his death.

The problem is, we have a president in Washington who doesn’t seem to care that Iran has a history of lying and cheating as part of their duty under Islamic doctrine.

Oh the Irony: Will Obama Help the Ayatollahs Pick Cotton???

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The Obama administration has opened the door for the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran.

This will aid the genocidal, Jihadist regime in Tehran in many ways. Money is the most fungible of commodities. Money brought it for one, perhaps benign, purpose, can free up other money for malevolent purposes, such as sponsoring terrorism or sending weaponry to the Taliban

Iran has a significant agriculture sector, including cotton farming. Not only does Iran trade in textiles, but it takes textiles to clothe an army, something most observers overlook when examining various forms of economic sanctions…

Iran forecasts 200,000 tons of unrefined cotton harvest

http://www.azernews.az/region/62115.html

Report: Iran Launches Lead Boat of New Submarine Class

Iran has launched a new class of indigenous submarine, according to a Tuesday report inJane’s Defence Weekly.

One of the suspected Fateh-class of indigenously built submarines was spotted in the water near the Bostanu Shipyard near the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 27, according to the report.

A second submarine appears to be under construction at the Bandar Anzali Naval Base on the Caspian Sea as of Sept. 27.

The construction of the 500-ton submarine demonstrates an improvement in Iran’s ability to produce military hardware despite the ongoing sanctions on the country. (Emphasis added)

Now that sanctions are being eased thanks to Obama and Kerry, the Iranians will have both more money to build military hardware and access to foreign goods and services.

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The Other Threat Obama and Kerry Ignored: Ballistic Missiles

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For over a decade, Iran has had a robust, active ballistic missile development program. There are new developments on this front that are being covered ably by the crew over at the Free Beacon. Before we link those, here are the basics of the Iranian ballistic missile program…

Iran has several types of ballistic missiles, ranging from Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) to Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM). Some are imported systems, some are domestic copies of foreign systems and some are indigenous systems. Iran is also known to be working on ICBMs–Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles.

According to the Obama Defense Department’s “Annual Report on the Military Power of Iran,” published in April of 2012, US intelligence estimates indicate that Iran will be capable of testing Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in 2015.  A May 2009 joint US-Russian assessment published by the East-West Institute estimated that Iran was 6-8 years away from fielding an ICBM. The United States Institute of Peace estimates that Iran will have an ICBM capable of striking the US by 2020.

Iranian Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

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This solid-fueled, mobile missile system was developed jointly with Red China, North Korea and Syria as a replacement for SCUD missiles. It entered production in 2002 and has a range of 185 miles. This is far enough to hit targets into US installations in Afghanistan, Kuwait and Qatar.

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Developed from the Soviet-era SCUD-B, this mobile, liquid-fueled rocket has a range of 185 miles. This is far enough to target US bases in Afghanistan, Kuwait and Qatar.

Shehab-2

Developed as an improvement from imported North Korean SCUD-C ballistic missiles, this liquid-fueled, mobile missile system has a range of 435 miles. This is sufficient range to reach US bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar.

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This is the name given by Iran to its CSS-8 rockets acquired from Red China. This solid-fueled, mobile missile has a range of 90 miles and is more of a battlefield rocket, though it could reach targets outside Iran if fired near Iran’s coast or borders.

Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM)

Shehab-3

This mobile, liquid-fueled missile was developed from North Korea’s NoDong 1 missile. Estimate’s of the Shehab-3’s range capabilities vary; some estimates place it in the IRBM category, rather than the MRBM category. The range estimates vary between 550 and 1500 miles. The upper end of this range would include all of Israel, as well as the eastern Mediterranean, all of Turkey, parts of Greece and all of Saudi Arabia. The lower end of the spectrum would place much of Saudi Arabia within range. There are several variants of the Shehab-3 with different names.

Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM)

Sajjil

There are at least three generations of this ballistic missile. It is a solid-fueled, mobile rocket and represents a significant advancement in Iranian capability because it is two-staged and thus lays the foundation for intercontinental flight. Also, because it is solid-fueled, it can be launched relatively quickly with little preparation. Range estimates vary from 1200 to 1800 miles, potentially putting targets as far as parts of Poland and parts of Italy within range.

Iranian Space Rocketry

Of particular significance and concern are Iranian efforts at space rocketry, through which it is in the process of mastering the multi-stage rocketry that is required for long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles capable of hitting the US from Iran. Readers may recall that North Korea has also used the cover of a space program to develop ballistic missile technology.

Iran’s Safir rocket was used to place a satellite in orbit in 2009. That launch displayed a new level of capability in propulsion and multi-stage rocketry that the Iranians had previously not demonstrated. The rocket appears to be a development of the Sajjil with greater length but a similar diameter.

Iran has unveiled a prototype of a larger, more capable multi-stage rocket known as the Simorgh, designed to achieve higher orbits with heavier payloads than the Safir. Thus far, the Simorgh has not flown.

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We provide this background because of announced developments by Iran’s ballistic missile program that have coincided with the Obama-Kerry-Ayatollah Agreement.

This morning, Bill Gertz of the Free Beacon detailed the latest on Iranian-North Korean cooperation on ballistic missiles. House Republicans revealed that US intelligence is warning them that Iran and North Korea are developing new engines for ballistic missiles at the same time that Obama and Kerry are asking Americans to back an agreement on nuclear technology with the Ayatollahs:

Iranian collaboration with North Korea on a new rocket booster for long-range missiles undermines the deal with Tehran on its nuclear program, key Senate and House Republicans said on Tuesday.

“While the president was undertaking his secret negotiations—which Congress wasn’t informed of—he had to know Iran and North Korea were testing new engines for ballistic missiles to target the United States,” said Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Ala.) chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on strategic forces.

The chairman, whose subcommittee is in charge of overseeing U.S. strategic weapons, ballistic missile defenses, and space programs, made the comments in response to a report Tuesday revealing that Iran is covertly working with North Korea on a new 80-ton rocket booster that can be used in both nations’ long-range missile programs.

In the Senate, Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) also criticized the Iran nuclear deal for not addressing the threat of Iran’s ICBM program.

Reports of Iran-North Korea ICBM collaboration follow new anti-America and anti-Israel outbursts from the Islamist regime in Tehran, Cruz said.

http://freebeacon.com/iran-north-korea-missile-cooperation-undermines-recent-geneva-nuclear-deal/

On the heels of Gertz’s article, Adam Kredo posted an article about a report directly from Iranian state-run media quoting an announcement on ballistic missile technology from a leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC):

A top Iranian military leader announced late Tuesday that Iran has developed “indigenous” ballistic missile technology, which could eventually allow it to fire a nuclear payload over great distances.

Brigadier General Hossein Salami, the lieutenant commander of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), made the critical weapons announcement just days after Iran and the West signed a deal aimed at curbing the country’s nuclear activities.

Salami claimed that “Iran is among the only three world countries enjoying an indigenous ballistic missile technology,” according to the state-run Fars News Agency. [Editor’s note: this claim would no doubt come as a surprise to Great Britain, France, Red China, India, and Israel.]

Of particular interest and significance from Kredo’s article are these passages from Michael Rubin:

Former Pentagon adviser Michael Rubin said that the United States is not paying great enough attention to Tehran’s military advancements.

“Perhaps, [Secretary of State] John Kerry believes that Iran only wants ballistic missiles for peaceful purposes,” said Rubin, author of Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes.

“The fact of the matter is that Kerry and crew left both ballistic missiles and the nuclear warhead trigger experimentation at Parchin [military site] off-the-table” during talks in Geneva, Rubin said. “It’s the diplomatic equivalent of installing a burglar alarm system in your house but leaving the keys in the door.”

http://freebeacon.com/iran-announces-development-of-ballistic-missile-technology/

 

 

 

Report: Iran accuses White House of lying on nuke agreement

Given Obama’s track record, it’s tough to know where the truth lies here. But either way, the news is bad.

Either Obama lied and made an even worse deal with the Ayatollahs than he is telling us, or he is telling the truth and the Ayatollahs have already decided to re-interpret the agreement in such a way as to allow maximum overdrive in their continued quest for nuclear weapons.

It doesn’t really matter which at this point because Obama already opened Pandora’s Box with this terrible agreement. The Ayatollahs have broken down decades of work by Republicans and Democrats alike in America to do our best to isolate Iran economically through sanctions. Perhaps even more than Obamacare, that will be Obama’s legacy: Atomic Ayatollahs–the world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism armed with nuclear weaponry.

Thanks to Obama and his disgraced Secretary of State John Kerry, the Iranians will very soon have billions of additional dollars with which to develop nuclear technology, build ballistic missiles and sponsor Jihadist terrorism around the globe.

From the Free Beacon article:

Iranian officials say that the White House is misleading the public about the details of an interim nuclear agreement reached over the weekend in Geneva.

The White House released a multi-page fact sheet containing details of the draft agreement shortly after the deal was announced.

However, [an] Iranian foreign ministry official on Tuesday rejected the White House’s version of the deal as “invalid” and accused Washington of releasing a factually inaccurate primer that misleads the American public.

Afkham and officials said that the White House has “modified” key details of the deal and released their own version of the agreement in the fact sheet.

Iran’s right to enrich uranium, the key component in a nuclear weapon, is fully recognized under the draft released by Tehran.

http://freebeacon.com/iran-white-house-lying-about-details-of-nuke-deal/

It is clear that Iran knows that uranium enrichment is key to its quest for nuclear weapons and they have every intention of continuing that activity. What is not being discussed in the so-called “mainstream” media in the US is the fact that Iran’s uranium enrichment operations are already in violation of UN Security Council Resolutions and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a party.

Why does anyone think that the Ayatollahs would suddenly begin playing by the rules now?

It is once again worth noting that we have seen this scenario before. Way back in 1994, in a deal referred to as the “Agreed Framework,” Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter combined to forge a deal with North Korea that was supposed to prevent that country from building nuclear weapons. It failed. In fact, Jimmy Carter can rightly be referred to as the Father of the North Korean Atomic Bomb. North Korea took the largesse that that deal provided and kept up its work on building bombs. Clinton and Carter to this day continue to lie about what the Agreed Framework accomplished. What it actually accomplished was to provide the cover necessary for a rogue nation to become a nuclear power. It is significant that the Agreed Framework was fashioned in such a way as to avoid the necessity for Senate ratification.

Today, the Obama-Kerry-Ayatollah agreement does the exact same thing. It bypasses the Senate’s constitutional authority and responsibility to ratify foreign treaties. And the inevitable result will be Iran as a nuclear power. This will be a gargantuan problem that successive presidents will have to deal with long after Obama steals away in the dark of night from his work at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The Coming Bonanza for Jihad from the Obama/Kerry-Ayatollah Nuclear Bargain

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Lost in the discussion about the disastrous P5+1 agreement on nuclear technology forced on the world by Barack Obama, John Kerry and the Ayatollahs in Tehran are the profound implications for Jihadist terrorism.

No where in the agreement is the issue of Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism even addressed. For all we know, John Kerry didn’t even raise it as an issue in his talks with the Iranians.

It’s not like the Obama administration can deny Iran’s role in the sponsorship of terrorism. The State Department has for years called Iran the world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism. We have chronicled that in the past:

https://iranbulletin.me/2010/08/06/irans-sponsorship-of-terror-detailed-in-new-state-department-report/

Note that in the State Department report we cited in our 2010 post on Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism, the Obama State Department acknowledged not only Iran’s sponsorship of Shia Hezbollah, but also Sunni terrorist organizations, such as HAMAS and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In addition, Iran was cited for providing safe haven for Al Qaeda and for providing arms and training to the Taliban, who were fighting US forces in Afghanistan.

Iran’s complicated, on-again, off-again relationship with Al Qaeda was the subject of an article I wrote for National Review way back in 2008 as well:

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/223992/iranian-entanglements/christopher-w-holton

Meanwhile, TerrorTrendsBulletin detailed Iran’s ongoing support for the Taliban as long ago as 2009:

http://terrortrendsbulletin.com/2009/06/08/taliban-continue-to-get-heavy-weapons-from-iran/

How does all this fit in with the nuclear agreement?

The point is, it takes money to arm, train, supply and provide safe haven for Hezbollah, HAMAS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Money is the lifeblood of Jihad and no one supports Jihad more than Iran does. That money has to come from somewhere. For the most part Iran gets money from oil and natural gas. Divestment and sanctions policies in the US and the West over the past 8-10 years have been geared toward reducing Iran’s oil revenue.

Now, with the stroke of a pen, Obama and Kerry have provided a renewed stream of revenue to the Ayatollahs by easing sanctions that were designed to pressure the Iranians into changing their behavior. This was done with the hope that the Iranians would not build nuclear weapons, a fool’s errand most likely. But even so, the deal was done in a vacuum of consideration for Iran’s sponsorship of Jihadist terrorism. So, whether the Iranians build an atomic bomb next week, next month or next year, Obama and Kerry obviously don’t care that Iran is the world’s foremost sponsor of Jihadist terrorism.

How much of a financial bonanza will the Iranians enjoy as a result of Obama and Kerry’s handiwork?

Well, one estimate forecasts that the Iranians will see an increase in their oil exports of as much as 50%. Given that Iran exports 1 million barrels of oil per day, that figure could rise to 1.5 million barrels of oil per day. Assuming a price of oil of $100 per barrel, that comes to an increase of $50 million each and every day over and above what the Iranians bring in now. Multiply that times 365 days per year and you get a figure of $18,250,000,000.

http://freebeacon.com/analysts-iran-oil-experts-could-increase-50-percent/

In other words, over the next year, the Iranians will earn an extra $18 billion thanks to Barack Obama and John Kerry.

How much of that ends up in the form of weaponry and training for Hezbollah, HAMAS, Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda and the Taliban is anyone’s guess. Surely a portion of it will also go to Iran’s ballistic missile development program as well…which is yet another nefarious Iranian activity that Obama and Kerry actively ignored in putting together this unprecedentedly horrible deal.

 

 

 

Why the Iran Nuclear Agreement is NOT Designed as a Distraction from the Obamacare Debacle

There is speculation in the blogosphere and on the airwaves this morning that the timing of the Obama/Kerry/Ayatollahs Agreement was designed to distract Americans from the Obamacare debacle.

This speculation is wrong for two reasons:

1. Look at the timing of the announcement of the agreement with Iran. It was announced late on Saturday night before a short holiday week, hardly the time you’d want to announce something to distract the citizenry from anything. If anything, the timing of the announcement seems to have been designed to cloak the agreement with Iran in hopes that by the time the next news cycle began other news stories would push it down the order.

It was released so late on Saturday night, in fact, that the agendas for the Sunday morning news shows had been set and there wouldn’t be any opportunity for administration officials to be called before the cameras to be questioned about the deal in any depth.

In other words, just the opposite of what a lot of people supposed about the announcement of this horrible deal with Iran, this announcement was designed to be timed so as few people as possible would be paying close attention.

2. The ObamaBomb, as the Center for Security Policy’s Frank Gaffney is calling the agreement with Iran, is as significantly scary in its own way as Obamacare is.

At least theoretically, Obamacare can be undone. The American people can choose to vote new Congressional representatives and a new president in 2016 who have the intention of rolling back or even repealing Obamacare.

That isn’t the case with the agreement with Iran. It is a multilateral capitulation that puts the Ayatollahs firmly on the road to building nuclear bombs. Even if America changed its mind and decided to re-tighten its sanctions against Iran, there is no way that China and Russia would allow such a move to succeed in the UN Security Council. Pandora’s Box has been opened and closing it now won’t do any good.

The American people can elect new leaders who think differently that Obama and Kerry on this, and they will still be powerless to undo what Obama and Kerry have done to the entire western civilization.

The only thing future leaders can do thanks to this agreement is try to prepare for a world in which the foremost state sponsor of Jihadist terrorism–and avowed, sworn enemy of the United States–is a nuclear power. Iran will now be untouchable in much the same way that North Korea became untouchable once Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter facilitated their construction of nuclear weapons through an agreement that fell outside the constitutional requirement for senate ratification.

Once Iran fulfills its dream of becoming a nuclear power, which is perhaps only months away, the world geopolitical landscape will become completely changed forever. Not only will Iran approach superpower status as it weaponizes its ballistic missiles capable of at least hitting all of Europe, but it will increase Iran’s economic power in the world as countries seek to establish ties so as not to be on the bad side of a genocidal regime armed with nuclear weapons. Most significantly, Iran will be able to operate and facilitate its global terror networks under a nuclear umbrella. Never again will striking Iran when a Jihadist organization they sponsor carries out a terrorist attack be an option. You can’t just go bombing a nuclear power, even if that nuclear power is sworn to your (America’s) destruction and has a constitutional mandate to export its Islamic revolution.

Future generations will ask:

How did they ever let it happen?

34 Years Ago Today

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Thirty-four years ago today, Iranian “students” stormed the US embassy in Tehran, Iran with the approval and, later, outright support, of the Ayatollah Khomeini, the Supreme Leader of Iran and the Islamic Revolution.

This should properly be regarded as the opening action in the modern era of a global Islamic jihadist insurgency directed at the US in particular and the West in general.

To be sure that insurgency is not homogenous and has been executed in fits and starts with often violent disputes between Islamic jihadist factions, but a global insurgency it is nonetheless.

To those of us old enough to remember, these images are vivid. Today, America will do nothing to commemorate the events of 4 November, 1979. But in Iran, it is annually a day of celebration.

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Some in America, particularly the “Blame America First” crowd on the Left and the Right, will blame America for the embassy invasion and hostage crisis, due to a US backed coup in the early 1950s. This expresses a profound ignorance of the doctrine behind the Islamic revolution, its goals and its self-imposed requirement to export itself globally. In a nutshell, the 1953 coup which overthrew Mohammad Mosaddegh of the National Front Party was not the defeat of an Islamic regime such as came to power under the fall of the Shah of Iran in the late 1970s. The Islamists were not supporters of Mosaddegh and did not seek the return to power of his political faction. In fact, the Ayatollah Khomeini declared the leaders of the National Front to be apostates in 1981, effectively a death sentence under Shariah.

The takeover of the US embassy was the opening salvo in a clandestine war waged against the US by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which continues up through today…

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